Climate
Seeing the bigger picture

Climate
Industries
For clean energy and storage, grid and electrification, carbon capture and removal, industrial decarbonisation, hydrogen and low-carbon fuels, climate analytics, climate adaptation, and circular materials companies.

In most categories, the technology has reached the point where it works at scale; what decides which companies make it through the next two years is whether the systems around it, the offtake, the grid, the policy floor, have caught up enough to make the unit economics hold.

Our work tends to start at the point where a working technology is being asked to behave like a bankable, deliverable business, often against a policy and market backdrop that has shifted faster than anyone modelled.
Three key challenges shaping the coming years
Across European Climate-tech, three questions keep showing up in different forms depending on who is asking. A green-steel CEO frames it as whether the offtake book can be widened beyond automotive before the next financing round.

A grid-edge software founder frames it as how to monetise speed-to-power before queue reform actually arrives. A carbon-removal team frames it as which side of the IRA-versus-CBAM line will determine next year's hiring plan.

Set side by side, they describe three pressure points reshaping commercial maturity across the sector: where bankable demand actually comes from, who can move infrastructure faster than competitors, and whether the policy floor a business plan was built on is still where it was when the model was built.
01. Offtake is the new equity
In green hydrogen alone, S&P Global Commodity Insights tracked roughly 60 major projects cancelled across 2025, removing close to 4.9 million tonnes per annum of would-have-been capacity, almost all of them stalled at the same point: not enough binding offtake to unlock project debt.

The same pattern is now visible across heavy industry. Stegra's €1.4 billion rescue in April 2026, led by the Wallenberg group, only closed because the company had secured a multi-year offtake book covering a majority of phase-one production from Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Scania, BMW, Volvo, IKEA and Microsoft. ArcelorMittal walked away from a green-DRI plant in Bremen and Eisenhüttenstadt despite €1.3 billion of committed German subsidy, citing the absence of credible offtake at green-steel prices.

Climeworks cut 22% of its workforce in May 2025 as the voluntary carbon market shrank by 7% to 157 million tonnes of retirements, with Microsoft alone accounting for over 80% of high-durability removal offtake announcements that year. The bankable Climate-tech business of 2027 looks structurally different from the one of 2022: smaller modular units, captive offtake signed before final investment decision, and a CCO function that has moved closer to the centre of the company than the CTO.
02. Speed to power
ENTSO-E and Beyond Fossil Fuels reported around 1,700 gigawatts of renewable capacity sitting in European connection queues at the end of 2024, more than six times Germany's installed power base. Median wait time from interconnection request to commercial operation has lengthened in parallel; LBNL's Queued Up 2025 puts the US average for projects built between 2018 and 2024 at over four years, against under two for those completed before 2007.

The supply-side bottleneck is meeting an unprecedented demand pull. The IEA's October 2025 Energy and AI tracker shows conditional offtake agreements between data-centre operators and small-modular-reactor projects rising from 25 GW at the end of 2024 to 45 GW in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the four largest hyperscalers contracted around half of all corporate clean-energy PPAs signed that year.

The companies that look most likely to capture the premium are those whose advantage is measured in months saved on time-to-energise rather than cents per kWh: Octopus Energy's Kraken platform raised a billion dollars in late 2025 at an 8.65 billion dollar valuation precisely on that basis, and Iberdrola's 2025-2028 plan pivots two-thirds of its €58 billion capex into networks where the queue makes that asset class scarce. The result is an industry that has begun to value firm, fast and connectable above almost everything else, and a sub-segment of scale-ups that can sell into that hierarchy without owning the generation themselves.
03. The policy floor moved
On 7 April 2026 the European Commission published the first quarterly CBAM certificate price at €75.36 per tonne of CO2, putting a real, paid carbon price on imported steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, hydrogen and electricity for the first time and beginning a phase-in that runs from 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034.

At the same moment, the Omnibus I package, formally adopted by the Council on 24 February 2026, raised CSRD thresholds to over €450 million in turnover and 1,000 employees, removing roughly 80% of previously in-scope companies and pushing Wave 2 and Wave 3 reporters back by two years.

Across the Atlantic, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 reset most of the IRA framework that European exporters and US-revenue scale-ups had built their unit economics around: the 45V hydrogen credit window now closes in 2027, which Energy Ventures Analysis estimates disqualifies around 95% of announced US hydrogen capacity, and the DOE Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations cancelled $3.7 billion of awards on 30 May 2025, including Sublime Systems, Brimstone and several other industrial-decarbonisation programmes.

Elemental Impact's June 2025 Climate Week survey found 69% of Climate-tech investors now expect first-of-a-kind capital to shrink further through 2026, with over half openly pivoting toward what the survey called policy-proof business models. The non-dilutive part of the capital stack has not disappeared, but it has narrowed and split along Atlantic lines, and the companies most likely to clear the next eighteen months are the ones whose plan still works if the policy environment moves another two notches before financial close.
In most parts of European Climate-tech, the underlying technology has reached working scale. The harder transition is whether the company built around that technology can behave like the kind of business its buyers, financiers and regulators now expect to see. A solar developer, an LDES manufacturer, a DAC operator, a green-steel producer and a grid-software platform end up looking quite different from each other on a balance sheet, but they tend to hear the same thing from a project-finance bank, a hyperscaler procurement team or a CBAM-exposed industrial buyer: come back when the offtake is contracted, the connection is in hand and the policy assumptions hold up to ten years of stress-testing. The technology proof, in other words, was the part that turned out to be easier.

The work that would unlock the next stage of growth tends not to be a continuation of what the company has been doing. Building an offtake book has more in common with multi-year enterprise sales than with a fundraising road show, compressing time-to-energise pulls in regulatory and transmission specialists who do not always sit inside the company, and designing a financing structure that holds up to a regulatory reset means treating the policy stack as one input among several rather than the load-bearing one.

Each of those is a serious organisational shift on its own, and together they tend to require the company to grow into something quite different from the venture-backed scale-up it was eighteen months earlier, while the existing team is still being judged on the older set of metrics.

Most of the engagements we take on in this sector sit in that transition. They tend to run over horizons long enough for an offtake to be signed, a queue position to be cleared or a financing structure to land in front of credit committee, because the pace of meaningful change here is set by infrastructure timelines and not by quarterly ones. The conversations that lead somewhere usually start with where the next genuine inflection point sits in the plan, and which of the organisational shifts beneath it is most likely to bring it forward by twelve months.
Where the work happens

Interconnectivity: Environmental Tech
A longer read on what’s shaping the sector.

The Interconnectivity Series
Drawing Cross-Industries Learnings

Climate sets out, at length, what we have been observing as the sector works through its current reset. Why offtake has quietly become the binding constraint on growth, what speed-to-power looks like once AI demand collides with queue dysfunction, and how Climate-tech plans will need to be rebuilt around the trans-Atlantic policy split that emerged in 2025.
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