Education
Seeing the bigger picture

Education
Industries
For K-12 EdTech, higher-education platforms, workforce learning and corporate L&D, language learning, assessment and credentialing, AI-native tutoring and content, and the infrastructure software running underneath schools and universities.

In most categories, the product has built an audience and a familiar name in the market; what decides which companies survive the next two years is whether they can defend that audience as foundation models commoditise the front end, prove the kind of outcomes a CFO or district CTO will pay for, and build a moat around something other than content delivery.

We tend to be most useful in the moment when a familiar product is being asked to prove what its growth numbers actually mean, in a market where the rules of buying have changed and the old proxies no longer hold.
Three key challenges shaping the coming years
Across European EdTech right now, three concerns tend to surface in nearly every board and leadership conversation, framed differently depending on the sub-segment but pointing at the same underlying conditions. A K-12 platform CEO frames it as what happens to engagement when a free AI is in every student's pocket.

A higher-education courseware leader frames it as what survives when finance heads are told to prove every renewal with learning gain. A workforce-learning founder frames it as how a $50,000 contract holds up when Workday has just bought Sana for $1.1 billion.

Underneath the differences in vocabulary they describe the same three conditions reshaping the sector: where defensibility lives once foundation models commoditise content delivery, how a product survives the consolidation of buying power into fewer, larger and more outcomes-tied contracts, and what it takes to be paid for documented learning rather than for sustained engagement.
01. AI ate the front end
Chegg lost roughly 99% of its market value between its 2021 peak and early 2026, with subscribers down 31% year-on-year in Q1 2025 and two rounds of layoffs across the year (22% in May and 45% in October) cutting headcount by more than half. CEO Nathan Schultz told the May 2025 earnings call that the trends impacting the business would worsen before they got better.

Foundation-model providers and hyperscalers are now bundling AI for institutions at no marginal cost: Oxford became the first UK university to roll out ChatGPT Edu campus-wide in September 2025, and Anthropic's Claude for Education has been picked up by LSE, Northumbria, Northeastern, Syracuse and the University of Pittsburgh in the same window. Khanmigo expanded from 68,000 pilot users to over 700,000 across more than 380 districts in a single year, and MagicSchool reached six million educators by October 2025, more than the entire US K-12 teacher population.

The defensible product of 2027 is unlikely to be the one that did content delivery, homework help or generic tutoring; the moats that look most likely to hold tend to sit in the system of record, the regulated assessment layer, the proprietary curriculum, or the workflow tools that teachers and administrators actually use day to day.
02. Buying has moved upstream
The UK Department for Education has set digital standards for schools to meet by 2030 and is channelling AI procurement through evidence-led national programmes like the £1 million AI Marking pilot and the AI Tools for Education Phase 2 framework, rather than school-by-school discretionary buying.

Estonia's AI Leap is rolling out to 20,000 students through a single national agreement, while Germany's DigitalPakt Schule (~€6 billion) and the European Schools system AI framework adopted in May 2025 are similarly centralised. In the United States, $190 billion of ESSER funding expired in January 2025 and the Department of Education rescinded a further $2.5 billion of late-liquidation extensions in March, with EdWeek's State of the Industry survey reporting that the share of K-12 vendors posting revenue declines doubled versus 2023.

The private markets have responded in kind: PowerSchool taken private by Bain at $5.6 billion in October 2024, Kahoot! at $1.7 billion in 2023, 2U into Chapter 11 in May 2024, Coursera and Udemy merging in December 2025, and Workday acquiring Sana for $1.1 billion in November 2025. The decision-maker who used to be a curious teacher with a credit card is increasingly a CTO running a stack-rationalisation review, a multi-academy trust procurement lead, or a CHRO whose CFO has asked exactly which line items are still pulling their weight.
03. Proof beats promise
Pearson's 2025 preliminary results showed that roughly 90% of adjusted operating profit now comes from assessment, virtual schools and what its CEO described as operationally complex large-scale services with very high quality requirements. The pattern is repeating across the sector. Coursera cut planned Degrees investment for 2025 because, in the company's own framing, while degree enrolments grew steadily, revenue growth lagged.

Multiverse pivoted out of US registered apprenticeships in 2025 to refocus on outcome-measured upskilling tied to documented productivity gains, with revenue per employee up 37% in its FY24-25 accounts; Workday's $1.1 billion acquisition of Sana in November 2025 was explicitly positioned as making

Workday the front door for work, with measurable productivity rather than completion data as the value being sold. K-12 procurement is moving in the same direction: the share of EdTech tools meeting ESSA Tier evidence standards rose from 32% to 45% in 2025, the UK DfE has piloted an EdTech evidence board, and Brighteye and Exbo's 2025 reports both define the winning commercial profile in nearly identical terms (NRR over 110%, payback under twelve months, documented efficacy). The metric that built EdTech in the venture-funded years tends not to be the metric that survives a renewal review in 2026.
In European EdTech, the stretch many companies are now navigating is the distance between the product that built the user base and the product that sustains it. A K-12 platform that grew on teacher word-of-mouth is being asked to behave like an enterprise-procured tool, a higher-ed courseware company that built itself around individual learners is being asked to defend institutional contracts, and a workforce-learning platform that lived inside L&D budgets is being asked to translate completion data into productivity numbers a CFO will recognise.

None of those transitions are technological. They tend to be commercial, organisational and evidential, and they pull the company into territory it was not originally built to operate in.

Most of what determines whether a company makes that translation tends to live outside the product team. Building an evidence base that survives an institutional procurement review is closer to clinical trial design than to product analytics; integrating with the system of record is a multi-quarter, multi-stakeholder commitment most product roadmaps were not built for; and pricing for outcomes rather than engagement requires a contract structure and a customer-success function that look almost nothing like the freemium funnel that got the company to its first ten thousand users.

Each is a serious organisational shift on its own. Together they tend to require a company to operate in two registers at once, the old one it grew up in and the new one its survival depends on, before the team is fully equipped for either.

The work we are typically asked to do in this sector sits exactly in that double-register window. It usually runs over horizons long enough for an institutional procurement cycle to complete, an evidence study to read out, or a customer-success motion to start showing in renewal numbers, because the changes that matter here rarely show up in a single quarter.

The starting point of most useful conversations is which of those organisational shifts is closest to becoming a binding constraint on the next stage of growth, rather than which feature gets built next.
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Interconnectivity is our long-form series on how the sectors we work in connect with each other and what is actually shaping each of them right now. The most recent edition is The Age of Transformative & Positive Technology.
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